Macro outlook

Adria Region Macro Quarterly 3Q 2023 - A hint of optimism for 2023

Highlight of this report is an upgrade of our GDP forecasts for 2023 for most of Adria region countries. Namely, for the biggest economies in the region previously we were forecasting a real GDP stagnation this year alongside low single-digit growth rates elsewhere in the region.

16.06.2023.

Regional topics

Markets report - Midyear view

Global equity&bond are in a positive tone in five months of 2023, due to slower inflation and solid company earnings expectations (in main world indices) in next 12M. What is still keeping at least some risk for sporadic corrections present is the remaining need for monetary tightening as well as its magnitude. Equity market in Adria region in the 5M2023 displayed solid performance, except B&H indexes which underperformed. SBITOP, CROBEX10 and BELEX15 outperformed broader benchmark STOXX600.

09.06.2023.

Sectoral analyses

Tobacco industry - Super Filtered profitability performance

In this report we explore the main trends, tailwinds, and headwinds in the regional tobacco industry. We recognize the Adria Region attractiveness for tobacco and divide the main players into two principal subgroups – producers and distributors. We also look at the global picture, examining the performance and strategies of the largest tobacco players.

01.06.2023.

Regional topics

Interest rates outlook - Higher for longer

The 2022 was highlighted by benchmark interest rates moving from extreme lows to high levels not seen in a decade. As inflation rates shows persistence, the policy rates are still biased upwards, and we see them „higher for longer“. The transmission to loan interest rates was, and still is, challenged by ample liquidity in the banking system. Our main thesis is that the ECB will be adjusting policy to keep policy rates in the next years higher than in the past 10 years (even if somewhat lower than currently) alongside gradually squeezing out excess liquidity from the system.

26.05.2023.

Sectoral analyses

Mariculture industry - Superb nutrition, dreadful economics

Mariculture, the farming of marine organisms, is an emerging industry that is gaining traction in Croatia over the last couple of years. With over 5,800 kilometers of coastline and favorable water conditions, Croatia is becoming a major player in the mariculture sector. This report aims to provide an overview of the current state of the industry in Croatia and its growth prospects for the future.

23.05.2023.

Regional topics

Inflation report - Inflation trending down steadily

Latest trend in the inflation rates in 2023 showed the continued downshift in headline rates that started in 4Q2022 (in Serbia the peak was seen yet in March). Price pressures eased mostly due to global shift down in energy/commodities prices, while as regard prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, they still stay stubbornly high (even though on a global level the presented a declining trend).

19.05.2023.

Regional topics

Delivery industry - Delivery on a bumpy road

In this report we examine the Courier, Express, Parcel (CEP) industry amid a remarkable growth achieved in previous years and significant transformation of the sector on the back of technological progress and digitalization. With regards to e-commerce segment, OOH (Out-of-home) delivery is the key trend in the industry. The model assumes large network of PUDO (pick-up and drop-off) points and automatic parcel machines, which finally gives flexibility to the customer in collection of parcel.

15.05.2023.

Regional topics

Retail report - Consumer sentiment still in charge

The retail trade in the Adria region at the beginning of 2023 shows mixed picture, with retail in Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia still growing, stagnating in Croatia, and even declining in Slovenia and Serbia, according to 1Q2023 data.

05.05.2023.

Regional topics

Construction and real estate - Public sector driving construction activity in 2023

In 2023, construction sector is set for a more intensive infrastructure activity, driven by public investments, while activity on buildings is expected to moderate as the residential demand cools down and overall economic activity slows which translates to less private investments.

27.04.2023.

Regional topics

Public finance report - Fiscal gaps to widen in 2023

In 2022, public finances were aided by stronger tax intake as the general economic recovery and high inflation boosted VAT and income tax receipts. Looking into 2023, upside surprises to inflation are still a positive element for tax intake.

21.04.2023.

Sectoral analyses

Food franchise industry - fast food defying healthy lifestyle trends

Our report focuses on fast food franchises in the region. We delve into growth drivers, challenges, and characteristics of regional franchises and benchmark their performance to global players. We have considered macroeconomic data, input prices, franchise cost structures and their strategies. We delineate the benefits of franchises for both the franchisor and franchisee and how it feeds into their overall corporate strategy and brand image.

13.04.2023.

Regional topics

Pet industry - short-term profitability pressures, long-term potential

Pet industry was growing steadily in the recent decade, while ongoing demography and lifestyle changes support the expectations of the further growth of the industry. In the analysis we also highlight our view that the industry will continue to grow, albeit with the near-term headwinds from persistently high inflation hitting on discretionary spending by households.

11.04.2023.