Regional topics

Interest rates and Financial Market outlook 2024 - Bonds to shine in 2024

Interest rates push coming from the ECB and FED has entered into a flat territory. This doesn’t mean that the restrictiveness is on hold, as higher levels of interest rates achieved so far provide support for the transmission mechanism to keep rolling.


Sectoral analyses

Commercial real estate - retail: Window shopping materializes into lively sales growth

The retail real estate industry has undergone its most significant transformation in history, and the cause can be traced, in its initial steps, to restricted movements during the pandemic and subsequently to changes in consumer behavior, with an essential part of the progress being the rise of e-commerce.


Sectoral analyses

Adria region Electrical Equipment Sectoral Analysis - Power surge in sales, power sag in profitability

This report scans the electrical equipment in Adria region from production and distribution market ends. We zoom in on the businesses within the electrical components and equipment sector which facilitate the availability of power distribution and renewable energy generation/transfer.


Regional topics

Commodity report - The golden age is not the age for the gold

Commodity market shows mixed picture during 2023. Agriculture and energy are stabilizing compared to rocky 2022, while precious metals benefit from their inflation hedge properties in the light of still elevated inflation, recessionary environment and geopolitical tensions.


Sectoral analyses

Energy sector

2022 was extremely challenging for companies from the energy sector. The central factor of instability was an extreme volatility of energy prices. The increase of prices on global market increased companies’ input costs, while inability to pass the increase on customers due to state price caps resulted in a significant drop in profitability for most of companies.


Regional topics

Stock market report - Examining determinants of regional stock market liquidity

Adria region stock indexes are mostly in green this year, with positive price returns in year-to-date comparisons everywhere except the Sarajevo stock exchange index (SASE). In this report, we examine market-wide drivers of stock market liquidity and highlight the determinants to drive the performance going forward.


Sectoral analyses

Rougher waters ahead? - Adria region Maritime ports

In this report we take a deep dive into the economics of regional ports. There are 3 key players handling shipping in the region: Luka Koper, Luka Ploče and Luka Rijeka. We offer the rationale for differences through presenting their competitive advantages. We also sought to provide a strong global context through various global shipping and port operating giants.


Sectoral analyses

Tourism industry - Fair market value of real estate - key industry topic

This industry report aims to analyze the performance of the Adria region’s tourism sector in 2022. The report will encompass both macroeconomic and microeconomic aspects of the industry. In addition, the report will remark on valuation indicators and scrutinize the accounting impact on the value of real estate portfolio.


Sectoral analyses

Construction sector report - Construction changes course from residential to road-building

In the Adria region, construction activity has been increasing its share within the value added during the last 10y. Compared to the EU average, the Adria region posts higher contribution to GDP from 2019 onwards. In other words, the share of corporate gross profits coming from the construction industry is rising. In this report we are going through drivers of business performance in the construction activity and provide key elements leading the future dynamics over the next few quarters.


Regional topics

Credit ratings – movers and potential for the Adria region - Path to a higher rating

Credit rating agencies focus on these 5 pillars: institutional, economic, external, fiscal and monetary factors. The rating is determined via a mix of qualitative and quantitative elements, considering the current situation as well as the outlook. The idea of this report is to highlight the movers of sovereign credit ratings and emphasize which policy moves would lift the ratings.


Regional topics

Banking sector report – 2023 profits – textbook example of monetary tightening effects

Banks profits are spiking in 2023, and this is not concentrated in Adria region but is rather an across-the-globe event. In this report we examine the performance of banks in the Adria region for the 1H 2023, interpret the very recent lending activity and interest rate movements, and provide outlook for the banks’ profits going forward.


Sectoral analyses

Grocery retailers - Consistently through disruption

In this report we analyze the grocery retail industry in Adria region countries, with a special focus on how successful retailers were in navigating the high inflation environment. Report is based on a macroeconomic as well as a single firm-level look of the latest trends.